北太平洋高度场异常关联中心的空间结构特征的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

季飞  支蓉  龚志强 《大气科学》2011,35(4):721-728

采用NCEP/NCAR全球高度场和地面气压资料,研究了北太平洋负关联中心由低层到高层的空间分布,以及与其有较强关联的异常关联中心的特征.结果表明,各高度场中与北太平洋关联比较显著的中心比较一致,主要分布在三个区域:赤道中太平洋和白令海峡的负关联中心,以及北美大陆东南部的正关联中心.三个区域内格点对北太平洋的综合作用表现...  相似文献   

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系          下载免费PDF全文

闫少锋  张金池  张波  王永平  俞红  闵俊杰  张增信 《气象与环境学报》2011,27(3):33-39

利用1951-2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气...  相似文献   

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses     

Pierre Ribereau  Philippe NaveauArmelle Guillou 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(10):1215-1221

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.  相似文献   

Effects of an exceptional drought on daily activity patterns, reproductive behaviour, and reproductive success of reintroduced Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx)     

K. Ismail  K. KamalM. Plath  T. Wronski 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(2):125-131

Activity patterns, social behaviour, and reproductive success of Arabian oryx were monitored in a reintroduced population in Mahazat as-Sayd Protected Area, Saudi Arabia. During the first year of the study, precipitation was 38% lower than the long-term average, whereas rainfall in the following year resulted in precipitation that was 92.8% of the long-term average. These dramatically different rainfall conditions corresponded with distinct patterns in various environmental parameters (air and soil temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, air pressure). Daily activity patterns, the frequency of social behaviours, and foraging activity were significantly reduced during the drought period. The frequency of reproductive behaviour was significantly related to daytime, air temperature and radiation, with a pronounced reduction of reproductive activities during the drought. Monthly rates of conceptions were considerably lower during the drought. Our results substantiate the idea that extended dry periods affect the population development of Oryx, but also raise questions about habitat suitability and carrying capacity. Future management of Arabian oryx should consider extreme climatic events as factors influencing various aspects of the ecology and behaviour of this species. This aspect may become even more important in the face of climate change, including a future increase of extreme climatic events.  相似文献   

环渤海地区城市化对夏季极端暖夜的影响     

李庆祥  黄嘉佑 《气象学报》2013,71(4):668-676

城市化对人类生活息息相关的一些指标(如夏季极端暖夜等)的影响研究尚少.取环渤海地区气象观测站的夏季(6-8月)逐日最低气温资料(1958-2009年),使用广义极值(GEV)分布拟合夏季极端暖夜气温分布,并对拟合函数的3个分布特征参数的年际变化进行分析,根据特征参数变化特征进行城市化对极端暖夜的影响程度的分离.研究结果表明,环渤海地区,在极端暖夜气温分布的3个参数的年际变化中,以位置参数的代表性最好.在城市快速发展时期,城市偏高气温出现的可能性大,但极端气温变化幅度也较大.城市化对环渤海不同类型城市夏季极端暖夜气温的贡献均为上升作用,增温速度最大约为0.3℃/(10a).  相似文献   

基于集合预报的中国极端强降水预报方法研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

刘琳  陈静  程龙  林春泽  吴志鹏 《气象学报》2013,71(5):853-866

极端强降水天气属于小概率事件,其发生具有很多不确定的因素,预报难度很大。根据Anderson-Darling检验原理研究基于集合预报资料的极端强降水天气预报方法,利用2007—2010年中国T213集合预报资料和2001—2010年6—8月中国降水观测资料,分析观测与集合预报累积概率密度分布函数的特征,建立基于集合预报与模式历史预报累积概率密度分布函数连续差异的数学模型——极端降水天气预报指数(EPFI),并对2011年7月中国极端强降水天气进行预报试验。结果表明,极端降水天气预报指数可以充分利用集合降水累积概率密度分布的尾端信息,为极端强降水提供科学合理的预报,基于中国气象局(CMA) T213集合预报的极端降水天气预报指数可提前3—7 d发出极端强降水预警信号,随着预报时效的延长,预报技巧逐渐降低。研究还表明,模式气候累积概率分布的合理性将直接影响极端强降水天气识别能力。  相似文献   

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献   

塔里木盆地巴麦地区石炭系低速异常碳酸盐岩的解释     

郭倩  蒲仁海 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2011,41(3):689-696

巴麦地区即塔西南巴楚隆起-麦盖提斜坡,具有台地边缘-斜坡的古构造和古地理背景,这种台地边缘和典型的浅滩沉积暗示了该区具有发育生物礁的环境特征。区内先巴扎（XBZ）600 km²三维地震探区石炭系发育了巴楚组（C₁b）生屑灰岩及标准灰岩、小海子组（C₂x）3套灰岩,其中小海子组发现特殊响应碳酸盐岩,主要表现为厚度增大、频率增高、多出一条波峰同相轴的地震响应特征。通过差异厚度法、底面拉平法、地震属性法、正反演模型法,结合野外露头、岩心、镜下观察、录井、沉积相等综合分析,可初步推测该低速异常体为厚度增加、孔隙度增大的近东西向台地边缘障壁礁所致。礁体东西走向延伸超过25 km,礁核区小海子组灰岩最厚62 m,礁外的小海子组50 m。台缘斜坡南倾,坡度陡,水平宽度1~2 km。礁后生屑滩北倾,坡度缓,水平宽度3~6 km。受色力布亚断裂带遮挡,该生物礁储层可以形成有利圈闭,面积约为42 km²,厚约45 m。  相似文献   

过去60年中3—5年时间尺度的强ENSO过程与平流层环流异常的滞后耦合及其机理   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

任荣彩 《气象学报》2012,70(3):520-535

基于1950—2009年60a月平均Nino3指数和NCEP/NCAR第一套等压面再分析资料,关注3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO过程与平流层环流年际异常的时空联系及其机理,通过对此期间出现在3次持续强ENSO阶段中的11次3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO过程的诊断表明,平流层环流的年际尺度异常与3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO循环过程密切耦合。极夜急流强度趋于在ENSO暖/冷峰值之后减弱/加强,最大异常值多滞后ENSO峰值约1/4周期(接近1a),出现在ENSO峰值之后的下一年冬季;且3—5a时间尺度的ENSO峰值愈强,滞后约1/4周期出现的热带外平流层纬向风的年际异常也愈强;平均而言,这种年际时间尺度的耦合关系,也对实际的季节尺度平流层极涡振荡的强度和性质有显著的调制作用。进一步研究这种滞后耦合关系与年际时间尺度的行星波活动异常的联系发现,在暖ENSO峰值所在的当年冬季,对流层高层被强迫出年际时间尺度的太平洋-北美(PNA)型异常环流,而与冷ENSO峰值相对应的是相反的太平洋-北美异常型;这种太平洋-北美型与平流层热带外地区的行星波1波的发展相联系;在ENSO峰值之后的下一年冬季,太平洋-北美型环流减弱但对流层高层的主要异常分布在中高纬度,多对应着平流层行星波2波的显著增强,与平流层极区最强的高度异常相联系。行星波活动所引起的经向动量通量和经向热量通量的辐合、辐散异常对平流层滞后异常响应的贡献,存在显著的阶段性差异,在不同的阶段两者可以共同起作用,也可以分别起作用。  相似文献   

苏鲁豫皖地区地磁异常场时空近期动态演化特征     

张毅  陈宇卫  顾春雷  王雷  徐如刚 《华南地震》2009,29(2):42-48

以苏鲁豫皖地区2005年至2008年四期地磁矢量场的观测数据为基础,分别建立了该区域的F、D、I三个独立分量四期的地磁异常场模型。通过对郯庐断裂带中段地磁异常场时空动态演化特征分析,发现该区域的F、D、I分量地磁异常场形态在2005年11月九江地震前后出现了较大程度的变化,甚至出现了地磁正负异常场的反转,从2007年春季至2008年春季,该区域地磁异常场分布形态基本保持稳定。  相似文献